Can Christmas come soon enough!
The drinks industry is not looking forward to a very merry Christmas with many predicting the worst for ten years as the off trade retailers slash champagne prices by fifty per cent, and Christmas on trade bookings are down by sixty per cent versus last year.
Have people suddenly stopped drinking, and has the drink responsibly message from government finally got through, or are there sectors still in growth ? The answer, is as always complicated. Online wine, and spirits are growing as consumers make active choices to buy wine online.
Wine online sales have grown as ease of delivery, wine choice increases and pricing becomes more competitive. Online wine choice is now greater than supermarkets or pub chains, as online wine merchants source wines from across the globe. At home drinking has reduced as people trade up to better varietals and invest in finer wines online.
Online Spirits are growing as consumers search for non supermarket brands that they have discovered during their travels or from personal recommendations. Volume brands such as Bacardi and Smirnoff struggle to sell online as consumers tend to prefer to buy these brands in the supermarkets along with beer and lager.
Champagne sales online as well as in the supermarkets are in free fall as the need for demonstration of wealth diminishes and consumers move to other fizz such as Prosecco. Online wine is growing but the industry volumes are shrinking and this Christmas will see total alcohol decline year on year.
Choice delivered by wine online will help drive category growth in the future as quality increases and volume decreases, but is this a bad thing ? After all alcohol can damage your health when drunk in excess, so perhaps quality will drive the correct consumer behaviours.
abv’s have been increasing over recent years, which is a concern for health, especially for red wine online. The complete opposite has occurred in beer and lager as lower abv brands such as Becks, and Stella 4 have re-defined the market.
In January wine on line, especially red wine on line will be the winner, whereas champagnes won’t win for anyone. Lower abv lagers will have stolen market share from premium lager and spirits online will grow ahead of last year. Nobody knows what will happen with off and on trade wines, but we believe that wine will decline in both these channels with all the growth going online.
2009 has seen the demise of First Quench, what will 2012 bring after the Olympics ? Champagnes should be back on growth by then, but maybe online wine sales will be as big as off trade sales. Imagine that.
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